torstai 11. elokuuta 2016

Some thoughts on world wars


I've been listening to Dan Carlin's WWI podcasts lately (Hardcore history; Blueprint for Armageddon) and it is quite fascinating. I get that he is no historian so those proverbial grains of salt are needed, but I'm even less historian (I've grown fond of historical topics only recently) so I am just accepting that his interpretation is fairly close to real events.

What has grown to bother me is how the initial setup of the war is described. There had not been a war between major powers since Napoleon's era - 100 years or so. There had been smaller conflicts - Russo-Japanese war (I'm typing these out from oral memory so there might be transliteration errors involved here) and Krimm war for example - but there had not been any wars between major powers for a long time.

Over that time killing power of technology had increased a lot - way, way more than people (including generals and other leaders) really expected. Machine guns and artillery were now a serious powers, but since they had not been used against opponents with similar capabilities their power was severely underestimated and the end result is that military leaders were forced to learn what was new as they went on - often by sacrificing thousands or tens of thousands of men for nothing but a lesson of 'that didn't work.'

Now, my speculation starts. Fast forward to this day. There has not been a major war between major powers since WWII. There has been many smaller conflicts, but most have been local or quite one-sided and wars generally are limited in nature. And technology has progressed massively.

Since no major wars have been fought lately, especially not total wars, so we do not really know what the capabilities there are exactly. Does this situation remind you of one world has already experienced, like the pre-WWI scenario above?

Granted, so far I don't see current situation as a powder keg like Europe was back then - I think that we've learned something and no one really wants that kind of war. Wait, no, I take that back - there are people who really do want that war to happen - they're ones that would supply either one or both or all sides with weapons - but they are minority (hopefully) and thus don't have that much power (hopefully) and so they don't get their way (again, hopefully). Unfortunately these people have lots of (bought and paid for) political power so it might not be that simple...

But still, this thought is enough to make me feel uneasy. Possibility is there, lurking in depths of political disagreements. Religion certainly is playing a role too there, but that at the moment it is restricted to "not a major power" status so I don't expect real war from there. And given mentioned technological advances, I really, really do not want to see how that war would be fought...




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