torstai 7. tammikuuta 2016

Not a fan of wind power


Let's get one thing clear at the start: I'm absolutely certain that global CO2 emissions absolutely must be reduced dramatically.

Many people who agree with that seem to unconditionally love renewables - especially solar and wind. I don't. Here is the reason:


This graph is directly from fingrid (company that runs national energy grid) page, accessible to anyone here. To be more specific, this lists wind power generation over last four months in Finland. Note I didn't say estimated there - these are mostly based on real figures delivered to them by producers. There is some error there (not all production apparently is reported properly) but in general the numbers are close enough to be trusted.

Let's compare it to power consumption and generation numbers, as seen below.


Red graph is consumption, black is national production. There is lot of short-time variance; this is because consumption on days is always about 1GW more than on night. Steady rise is because of transition from summer to winter - heating houses consumes a lot of power.

Then note that there is constant 2 GW difference; there just isn't enough domestic electricity production to meet demand. So we must constantly import energy from neighboring countries (mostly from Sweden, but some from Norway and Russia too). To make things worse, wind power is also disrupting reserve power plants - they're being completely shut down due to insanely high guaranteed price given to wind power producers. 

Also note how the difference dramatically grows towards end. Let's take a closer look there.



Upper graph; red is consumption, black production. Lower graph yellow is wind power generation.

I'm writing this on noon of january 7th and it's -30C outside, just like it was yesterday. People often claim that wind power works also when it's freezing outside. Well, doesn't look like it to me, consumption is way up from last week and there's practically no wind power generation. (now, before someone complains: the claim might be true somewhere and/or sometime, but every single cold period here (granted, not that many so far) I've looked up has looked similar to this)

Or in numbers: From the new year's eve, 31.12., the production has dropped to about one fifth (from about 580MW (my estimation) to about 100MW). At the same time (peak) consumption as gone up by almost 2000MW. Yeah, I'll take just about anything before I'd rely on wind power as main form of energy production. For each windmill you'd need another equally powerful plant as backup! Talk about insane ways to generate power...

Due to high latitude solar here is equally insane option. Sure, it generates a lot in summers, when the consumption at its minimum, but in winter there's practically no production as sun just barely rises over the horizon (or doesn't at all, like up north).

Hydro in Finland is pretty much at max already, every river where there is potential is already used, so there isn't any way to increase that either.

There's a lot of talk about energy storage as buffer to help with the fluctuations of generation, but until you can show me cheap, reliable and safe (you have seen pictures of phone batteries bursting? Now imagine same, only with a battery thousand times of the capacity and so heavy you can't just toss it outside to burn...) storage method, I'll take a few more nuclear plants, thank you.



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